Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin extended their gains despite ongoing geopolitical tensions tied to the US-Iran war, which continues to fuel volatility across global markets. Bitcoin climbed to $76,000, its highest level in months, while Dogecoin regained key support levels amid a surge in leveraged trading and renewed appetite for risk. Analysts, however, remain divided on whether the move signals a lasting reversal or a temporary bounce within a broader bearish cycle. Bitcoin’s open interest has surged 59% over the past seven weeks, while Ethereum’s has risen 45% over the same period. Dogecoin has also seen a sharp increase in speculative positioning, underscoring growing participation from retail and leveraged traders. War uncertainty caps upside potential The US-Iran conflict remains a dominant force shaping market sentiment. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that sustained geopolitical tension could limit further upside, arguing that meaningful rallies are difficult to sustain while war-driven uncertainty persists. Dogecoin , often more sensitive to shifts in sentiment, has closely followed the broader risk-on movement. Its ability to hold above key support levels during the conflict suggests that retail demand remains intact despite macro headwinds. Van de Poppe also pointed to a potential macro catalyst: weakening conditions in the US economy. He suggested the Federal Reserve may be forced to return to monetary easing, a shift that has historically supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Dogecoin, in particular, tends to react sharply to improving liquidity conditions. Adding to the optimism, US President Donald Trump signaled that new peace negotiations with Iran could begin within days. The announcement triggered a swift reaction across crypto markets, pushing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin higher as traders priced in a possible de-escalation. Rising leverage raises market risks On-chain analytics firm Santiment confirmed that the rally coincides with a spike in leveraged activity. The firm highlighted that rising prices, along with surging open interest, increase the risk of sudden liquidations. If crowded positions begin to unwind, Bitcoin, Ethereum , and Dogecoin could face sharp and synchronized corrections. Elevated leverage levels often amplify both upward and downward price movements, leaving the market vulnerable to rapid swings. Not all analysts are convinced the worst is over. Crypto analyst Colin argued that Bitcoin’s February low of $60,000 is unlikely to mark the true bottom of the current cycle. He pointed out that Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, meaning the drawdown lasted just four months, far shorter than the typical 12-month duration seen in previous cycles. While acknowledging that market cycles can evolve, he described such a compressed timeline as statistically unlikely. The depth of the decline also appears modest compared to historical trends. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 53% from its peak, whereas past bear markets have seen drawdowns of up to 77%. Ethereum and Dogecoin, which often experience steeper declines than Bitcoin, could face additional downside if historical patterns hold.
