The CLARITY Act is unlikely to receive a final Senate vote before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess. Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to begin floor action, but he has not confirmed enough time or votes for passage. The bill still faces disputes over ethics rules, stablecoin rewards, consumer safeguards, and illicit finance controls. Supporters face a narrow calendar before the November midterm elections. Senate Calendar Narrows Before August Recess Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters that he would like to get the CLARITY Act started before the Senate leaves for its summer break. His comments suggest the chamber may open debate or begin procedural steps without completing a final vote. The Senate is scheduled to remain in session through August 7. The Senate process can take several days, especially when a bill requires cloture and amendment votes. The legislation needs 60 votes to advance, which means Republicans must secure Democratic support. Sanctions, government funding and other legislative priorities are also competing for floor time. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt offered a more optimistic assessment. He said the first week of August still provides time for Senate action, although he acknowledged that a final July vote appears unlikely. Starting the process before recess could leave the bill available for further debate when senators return in September. Democratic Objections Keep Vote Count Unclear Republicans released updated CLARITY Act text on July 22 after combining work from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees. Senator Cynthia Lummis said negotiators would continue discussing the ethics section and other unresolved provisions. The draft also keeps protections for certain non-controlling software developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act. A group of Senate Democrats said the text falls short on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance, conflicts of interest and market integrity. Their votes are central to the bill’s path, as Republicans do not hold the 60 seats needed to move it without cross-party support. The ethics section is a main barrier. The draft places enforcement authority with the Justice Department and includes temporary restrictions involving senior officials and digital asset activity. According to Polymarket data, the CLARITY Act has a 37% chance of being signed into law in 2026. The probability has dropped 28% as Senate timing and election-year disputes cloud its path. CLARITY Act Passage Probability | Source: Polymarket Stablecoin Yield Adds Another Dispute Banks and crypto companies remain divided over stablecoin rewards. The draft restricts interest-like payments on passive stablecoin holdings but allows rewards tied to transactions or customer activity. Banking groups argue that broad reward programs could draw deposits away from regulated lenders. Crypto firms say tighter restrictions could limit competition and reduce the use of dollar-backed tokens. Republican senators have also raised concerns about the wording. Any floor process may require new amendments before Senate leaders can test support for the full bill. The schedule becomes harder after the recess. Congress returns for about three weeks in September, when funding bills, defense legislation and election campaigning will compete for attention. Even if the Senate passes the measure, the House must approve the Senate version or resolve differences between the chambers. Police Group Backs Latest CLARITY Act Draft The National Fraternal Order of Police has endorsed the current version of the CLARITY Act. In a July 24 letter, the group said language linked to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act addresses its earlier concerns and preserves law enforcement authority to investigate crypto-related crime. The group also cited provisions covering fraud, anti-money laundering duties, temporary transaction holds, asset tracing, digital asset kiosks and training grants. It said the bill gives investigators clearer tools while maintaining liability for people who knowingly transfer funds connected to criminal activity. Eleanor Terrett reported the endorsement but noted that the BRCA provision appeared unchanged in the draft released Wednesday. Therefore, it is unclear which change resolved the group’s previous objections. The endorsement removes one source of opposition, but it does not settle the ethics, stablecoin, and vote-count disputes delaying Senate action.
