Bitcoin traders often see the $1,000,000 price target as unrealistic, yet new data suggests the view may be changing. Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan has offered a detailed case showing how Bitcoin can reach the mark if one condition plays out. His memo explains that the target depends on the future size of the global store-of-value market and Bitcoin’s share of that market. At press time, the Bitcoin price was trading at $70,244.08, a 2% surge from the 24-hour low. Store-of-Value Market Expansion Becomes the Main Variable Matt Hougan explains that many analysts base their view on today’s market, which stands at about $38 trillion. Gold controls roughly $36 trillion while Bitcoin holds about $1.4 trillion. This places Bitcoin below 4% of the total value. He argues that analysts often make a mistake by assuming the market stays fixed. He says the category has grown quickly during periods when investors preferred assets outside the banking system. Matt Hougan points to gold’s expansion over the past two decades. The metal was valued at around $2.5 trillion in 2004 when the first U.S. gold ETF launched. Its value rose near $40 trillion as global debt and geopolitical risk increased. He notes that this growth shows how the category can change when investors demand alternative assets. If similar expansion continues, the store-of-value market could reach about $121 trillion within ten years. Hougan says Bitcoin needs only 17% of that market to trade at $1,000,000 per coin. Institutional Activity Drives the New Market Share Outlook Matt Hougan says Bitcoin’s rising adoption improves the case for a higher share in the future. He cites the rapid growth of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and growing interest from large institutions. Endowments and sovereign wealth funds now hold allocations that were rare five years ago. Many professional investors once kept exposure near 1 percent, yet some now move toward 5 percent because Bitcoin’s long-term volatility has declined. He says the trend reflects the asset’s growing acceptance and the increasing view of Bitcoin as a digital store of wealth. He adds that Bitcoin’s capped supply continues to attract investors who want to reduce exposure to monetary expansion. Concurrently, as we reported, the BTC network has mined more than 20 million coins. This milestone leaves fewer than one million coins remaining before the hard cap is reached, which is the basis for a bullish rally. Key Risks Create a Wide Range of Possible Outcomes Matt Hougan acknowledges that the Bitcoin price projection depends on assumptions about market growth and future adoption. He says the past twenty years included a financial crisis, the rise of quantitative easing, and long periods of low interest rates. These forces may not repeat, and the gold market could slow. He also accepts the possibility that Bitcoin may not gain enough share to reach the target. However, he says the opposite outcome is also possible. Global debt levels are rising, and some investors worry about currency weakening, which may speed up demand for scarce assets. Several well-known industry figures share similar long-term expectations. Michael Saylor earlier said the $1,000,000 level is “inevitable.” Concurrently, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood has a base case of $1.2 million by 2030. In addition, Arthur Hayes and Eric Trump say Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000by 2028 if liquidity expands. Robert Kiyosaki and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong also expect long-term gains as supply falls and demand grows. Hougan concludes that his base case assumes both continued market expansion and continued Bitcoin share growth. He says these trends support a much higher future price than today.
